Mohsen Sadatsafavi, MD, PhD
Assistant Professor, Health Outcomes, UBC Faculty of Pharmaceutical Sciences
Associate, Division of Respiratory Medicine, UBC
Scientist, Centre for Clinical Epidemiology and Evaluation, UBC
From ROC to RIC: New metrics for documenting the clinical utility of (bio)markers and risk prediction scores
Abstract: The Precision Medicine movement and arrival of vast “omics” data have accelerated the development of (bio)markers and clinical prediction models. There are many tools for communicating the capacity of a marker in risk concentration, including the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve, Predictiveness Curve, and Lorenz Curve. However, these metrics largely focus on studying ‘risk’. It is time to move on from the estimates of concentration risk to estimates of ‘concentration of benefit’ in marker development. We introduce a new graphical method: the Relative Impact Characteristic (RIC) curve. RIC visually represents the concept of concentration of benefit when the marker is used to inform a specific treatment decision. The proposed tool juxtaposes two fundamental quantities associated with marker implementation: the population-level impact of marker-informed treatment and the relative size of the treated population. We establish analogies between the ROC and the RIC curves around the interpretations of shape, slopes, and area under the curve. A case study in COPD shows how the data from a clinical trial can be used to construct the RIC curve and evaluate the clinical utility of a prediction model for exacerbations.
Work in Progress (WiP) presentations take place at St. Paul’s Hospital in the Hurlburt Auditorium on alternating Wednesdays from 12:00–1:00 PM. These seminars provide investigators with an opportunity to present ongoing research, obtain feedback from colleagues and peers, and make new connections for their projects. Talks are open, and a light lunch is served.